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Forecasting EMU inflation: a disaggregated approach by countries and by sectors

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URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10016/3142
ISSN: 1466-4364
DOI: 10.1080/13518470210167284
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forecasting_espasa_EJF_2010_ps.pdf (415.26 KB)
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2002-12
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Routledge
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Abstract
Inflation in the European Monetary Union is measured by the Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP) and it can be analysed by breaking down the aggregate index in two different ways. One refers to the breakdown into price indexes corresponding to big groups of markets throughout the European countries and another considers the HICP by countries. Both disaggregations are of interest because in each one, the component prices are not fully cointegrated, having more than one common factor in their trends. The paper shows that the breakdown by group of markets improves the European inflation forecasts and constitutes a framework in which general and specific indicators can be introduced for further improvements.
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Core Inflation, Cointegration, Common Factor, Univariate Models, Veqcm, Bottom-UP, Approach, Unión Europea
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The European Journal of Finance, (2002), 8 (4), 402-421
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DES - Artículos de Revistas
Archivo digital España - Unión Europea