Publication: Goodness of fit in models for mortality data
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2008-09
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Abstract
Mortality data on an aggregate level are characterized by very large sample sizes. For this
reason, uninformative outcomes are evident in common Goodness-of-Fit measures. In this
paper we propose a new measure that allows comparison of different mortality models even for
large sample sizes. Particularly, we develop a measure which uses a null model specifically
designed for mortality data. Several simulation studies and actual applications will demonstrate
the performances of this new measure with special emphasis on demographic models and Pspline
approach.
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Goodness of fit, P-splines, R2, Mortality