Publication: Wind-Based Robust Trajectory Optimization using Meteorological Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts
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2016-11-08
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Eurocontrol
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Abstract
A major challenge for Trajectory-Based Operations
is the existence of significant uncertainties in the models and
systems required for trajectory prediction. In particular, weather
uncertainty has been acknowledged as one of the most (if not the
most) relevant ones. In the present paper we present preliminary
results on robust trajectory planning at the pre-tactical level.
The main goal is to plan trajectories that are efficient, yet
predictable. State-of-the-art forecasts from Ensemble Prediction
Systems are used as input data for the wind field, which we
assume to be the unique source of uncertainty. We develop an
ad-hoc optimal control methodology to solve trajectory planning
problems considering uncertainty in wind fields. A set of Paretooptimal
trajectories is obtained for different preferences between
predictability and average efficiency; in particular, we present
and discuss results for the minimum average fuel trajectory and
the most predictable trajectory, including the trade-off between
fuel consumption and time dispersion. We show how uncertainty
can be quantified and reduced by proposing alternative trajectories.
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Proceedings of SESAR Innovation Days 2016 (SIDs'16)