Combining benchmarking and chain-linking for short-term regional forecasting

Abstract

In this paper we propose a methodology to estimate and forecast the GDP of the different regions of a country, providing quarterly profiles paper offers a new instrument for short degree of synchronicity among regional business cycles. Technically, we combine time series models with benchma quarterly indicators and to estimate quarterly regional GDPs ensuring their temporal and transversal consistency with the National Accounts data. The methodology addresses the issue of non-additivity taking into account linked volume indexes used by the National Accounts and provides an efficient combination of structural as well as short-term information. The methodology is illustrated by an application to the quarterly GDP estimates and forecasts at the regional level (i.e., with a minimum compilation delay with respect to the national quarterly GDP)