http://hdl.handle.net/10016/2725 Tue, 21 May 2013 13:28:29 GMT 2013-05-21T13:28:29Z http://hdl.handle.net/10016/15790 Title: Simulating scenarios and prediction intervals in wind power forecasting with the Beta distribution Author(s): Jaramillo Duque, Álvaro; Sánchez, Ismael; Castronuovo, Edgardo D.; Usaola, Julio Abstract: A methodology for the simulation of the wind power scenario for a short term horizon (one or two days in advance) is proposed. The covariance of the historical errors and the wind power forecast are use to generate a conditional random variable that represent the power wind production as a scenario. With the information provided by the scenario simulation, the energy deviation during a period and the prediction interval for each hour are obtained. The Beta distribution is used to represent the behaviour of the wind power production due to its better performance. With the results, it is possible to quantify the uncertainty of wind energy production. Finally, comparing the covariance and correlation of the simulated errors with historical errors, the procedure of the methodology is validated. Description: Proceedings of: 11th Spanish-Portuguese Conference on Electrical Engineering (XICHLIE), 1-4 Julio 2009, Zaragoza (España) Tue, 31 Mar 2009 22:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10016/15790 2009-03-31T22:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10016/15772 Title: Optimal operation of a pumped-storage hydro plant that compensates the imbalances of a wind power producer Author(s): Jaramillo Duque, Álvaro; Castronuovo, Edgardo D.; Sánchez, Ismael; Usaola, Julio Abstract: The participation of wind energy in electricity markets requires providing a forecast for future energy production of a wind generator, whose value will be its scheduled energy. Deviations from this schedule because of prediction errors could imply the payment of imbalance costs. In order to decrease these costs, a joint operation between a wind farm and a hydro-pump plant is proposed; the hydro-pump plant changes its production to compensate wind power prediction errors. In order to optimize this operation, the uncertainty of the wind power forecast is modeled and quantified. This uncertainty is included in an optimization problem that shifts the production of the hydro-pump plant in an optimal way, aiming at reducing the imbalance costs. The result of such a method is profitable for both participants, the wind farm and the hydro-pump plant. A realistic test case is used to evaluate the proposed method. Wed, 31 Aug 2011 22:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10016/15772 2011-08-31T22:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10016/11761 Title: Operación óptima de una planta hidráulica reversible que cubre los desvíos en la predicción de un productor eólico Author(s): Jaramillo Duque, Álvaro Abstract: En algunos mercados de energía eléctrica, el productor eólico debe proporcionar con antelación un programa de producción, usualmente basado en herramientas de predicción de potencia eólica. Adicionalmente, es responsable de asumir los desvíos que pueden darse entre las previsiones y la producción real de la energía. Con el fin de disminuir los sobre costos por desvíos, es propuesta la operación conjunta de una planta hidráulica reversible que adapta su operación para compensar los errores en la predicción de potencia eólica. Con el fin de optimizar la operación de la planta hidráulica reversible, es necesario cuantificar con antelación la incertidumbre de la predicción de potencia eólica. Para esto es desarrollado un método basado en los datos historicismos de la producción de potencia eólica y su predicción, con el cual se logra modelar la producción de potencia eólica y posteriormente, es posible definir intervalos de incertidumbre para la misma. Finalmente, es formulado un problema de optimización, utilizando como entradas la incertidumbre de la predicción y las características de la planta hidráulica reversible, donde el objetivo es encontrar el mejor programa de operación para la planta hidráulica reversible que cubra los posibles desvíos del productor eólica.Un caso realista es utilizado para evaluar el método propuesto.; The participation of wind energy in electricity markets requires providing a forecast for future energy production of a wind generator, whose value will be its scheduled energy. Deviations from this schedule because of prediction errors could imply the payment of imbalance costs. In order to decrease these costs, a joint operation between a wind farm and a hydro-pump plant is proposed; the hydro-pump plant changes its production to compensate wind power prediction errors. In order to optimize this operation, the uncertainty of the wind power forecast is modeled and quantified. This uncertainty is included in an optimization problem that shifts the production of the hydro-pump plant in an optimal way, aiming at reducing the imbalance costs. The result of such a method is profitable for both participants, the wind farm and the hydro-pump plant. A realistic test case is used to evaluate the proposed method. Mon, 28 Sep 2009 22:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10016/11761 2009-09-28T22:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10016/8971 Title: Probabilistic load flow in systems with wind generation Author(s): Usaola, Julio Abstract: A method for solving a probabilistic power flow that deals with the uncertainties of (i) wind generation, (ii) load and (iii) generation availability in power systems is proposed. Dependence between random variables has been considered. The method is based on the properties of cumulants of random variables. Cornish-Fisher expansion series are used to obtain the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the output variables. Multimodal CDF are obtained by convolutions, whose number has been minimised in order to decrease the computation requirements. Mon, 30 Nov 2009 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10016/8971 2009-11-30T23:00:00Z