DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS
http://hdl.handle.net/10016/14
2015-03-03T03:12:31ZSmall versus big-data factor extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: An empirical assessment
http://hdl.handle.net/10016/20103
Small versus big-data factor extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: An empirical assessment
Ruiz, Esther; Poncela, Pilar
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística
In the context of Dynamic Factor Models (DFM), we compare point and interval estimates of the underlying unobserved factors extracted using small and big-data procedures. Our paper differs from previous works in the related literature in several ways. First, we focus on factor extraction rather than on prediction of a given variable in the system. Second, the comparisons are carried out by implementing the procedures considered to the same data. Third, we are interested not only on point estimates but also on confidence intervals for the factors. Based on a simulated system and the macroeconomic data set popularized by Stock and Watson (2012), we show that, for a given procedure, factor estimates based on different cross-sectional dimensions are highly correlated. On the other hand, given the cross-sectional dimension, the Maximum Likelihood Kalman filter and smoother (KFS) factor estimates are highly correlated with those obtained using hybrid Principal Components (PC) and KFS procedures. The PC estimates are somehow less correlated. Finally, the PC intervals based on asymptotic approximations are unrealistically tiny.
2015-01-01T00:00:00ZA Directional Multivariate Value at Risk
http://hdl.handle.net/10016/20088
A Directional Multivariate Value at Risk
Torres, Raúl; Lillo, Rosa E.; Laniado, Henry
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística
In economics, insurance and finance, value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability alfa, the 100alfa% VaR is defined as a threshold loss value, such that the probability that the loss on the portfolio over the given time horizon exceeds this value is alfa. That is to say, it is a quantile of the distribution of the losses, which has both good analytic properties and easy interpretation as a risk measure. However, its extension to the multivariate framework is not unique because a unique definition of multivariate quantile does not exist. In the current literature, the multivariate quantiles are related to a specific partial order considered in Rn, or to a property of the univariate quantile that is desirable to be extended to Rn. In this work, we introduce a multivariate value at risk as a vector-valued directional risk measure, based on a directional multivariate quantile, which has recently been introduced in the literature. The directional approach allows the manager to consider external information or risk preferences in her/his analysis. We have derived some properties of the risk measure and we have compared the univariate VaR over the marginals with the components of the directional multivariate VaR. We have also analyzed the relationship between some families of copulas, for which it is possible to obtain closed forms of the multivariate VaR that we propose. Finally, comparisons with other alternative multivariate VaR given in the literature, are provided in terms of robustness.
2015-01-01T00:00:00ZA game theoretic approach to group centrality
http://hdl.handle.net/10016/19231
A game theoretic approach to group centrality
Flores Díaz, Ramón Jesús; Molina Ferragut, Elisenda; Tejada, Juan
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística
This paper is centered in the valuation of the centrality of groups following aproblem-specific approach (Friedkin, 1991). Assuming a TU-game that reflects theinterests which motivate the interactions among individuals in a network, we extend thegame theoretic centrality measure of Gomez et al. (2003) to the case of groups, anddefine the game theoretic group centrality of a group as the variation of its value orpower due to their social relations. We rely on the Shapley group value (Flores et al.,2014) for measuring the value of a group in a game without any restriction, and weintroduce the Myerson group value in order to measure the value when the socialstructure is considered.
2014-07-01T00:00:00ZA Bayesian nonparametric modelling to estimate student response to ICT investment
http://hdl.handle.net/10016/19916
A Bayesian nonparametric modelling to estimate student response to ICT investment
Cabras, Stefano; Tena, Juan de Dios
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística
This paper estimates the causal impact of investment in information andcommunication technologies (ICT) on student performances in mathematics asmeasured in the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2012 for Spain.To do this we apply a new methodology in this context known as Bayesian AdditiveRegression Trees (BART) that has important advantages over more standardparametric specifications. Results indicate that ICT has a moderate positive effect onmath scores. In addition, we analyze how this effect interacts with variables related toschool features and student socioeconomic status, finding that ICT investment isespecially beneficial for students from a low socioeconomic background.
2014-12-01T00:00:00Z