Departamento de Economíahttp://hdl.handle.net/10016/92014-09-17T21:39:35Z2014-09-17T21:39:35ZOn the Optimality of U.S. Fiscal Policy: 1960-2010Ortigueira, Salvadorhttp://hdl.handle.net/10016/193422014-09-15T12:00:21Z2014-08-01T00:00:00ZOn the Optimality of U.S. Fiscal Policy: 1960-2010
Ortigueira, Salvador
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía
This paper assesses the optimality of U.S. fiscal policy from 1960 to 2010. With this purpose, we present a tractable neoclassical economy with a benevolent government and characterize time-consistent, optimal fiscal policy. We then compare the model's prescriptions for income tax rates and government expenditure with their empirical counterparts observed in the U.S. in this period. We find that U.S. income taxation and government consumption expenditure were in line with the model's prescriptions from 1960 to 2000. However, starting in the early 2000s and for the rest of the decade, U.S. fiscal policy trended in a direction opposite to that of the optimal policy prescribed by the model. In particular, U.S. income tax rates declined below their optimal rates, and government consumption expenditures as a share of GDP sharply increased above their optimal levels. By way of example, while our model prescribes a 10% reduction in the government consumption expenditure-to-GDP ratio between 2001 and 2010, the U.S. ratio increased by 23% in this period.
2014-08-01T00:00:00ZA note on price caps with demand uncertainty, quantity precommitment and disposalLemus, A.Moreno, Diegohttp://hdl.handle.net/10016/193322014-09-10T16:21:17Z2014-08-01T00:00:00ZA note on price caps with demand uncertainty, quantity precommitment and disposal
Lemus, A.; Moreno, Diego
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía
Since Littlechild (1983)'s report, price cap regulation has been regarded as an effective instrument to mitigate market power when precise information about cost and demand is available. Earle, Schmedders and Tatur (2007) establishes that the comparative static properties of price caps that hold when the demand is deterministic fail for a generic stochastic demand schedule. This note concerns the validity and interpretation of this result in a setting in which firms choose how much to produce ex-ante, but then upon observing the realization of demand choose how much of their output to supply, freely disposing of the output it does not supply.
2014-08-01T00:00:00ZThe skewness of scientific productivityRuiz-Castillo, JavierCostas, Rodrigohttp://hdl.handle.net/10016/182862014-08-27T12:02:26Z2014-01-01T00:00:00ZThe skewness of scientific productivity
Ruiz-Castillo, Javier; Costas, Rodrigo
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía
This paper exploits a unique 2003-2011 large dataset, indexed by Thomson & Reuters, consisting of
17.2 million disambiguated authors classified into 30 broad scientific fields, as well as the 48.2
million articles resulting from a multiplying strategy in which any article co-authored by two or more
persons is wholly assigned as many times as necessary to each of them. The dataset is characterized
by a large proportion of authors who have their oeuvre in several fields. We measure individual
productivity in two ways that are uncorrelated: as the number of articles per person, and as the mean
citation per article per person in the 2003-2011 period. We analyze the shape of the two types of
individual productivity distributions in each field using size- and scale-independent indicators. For
productivity inequality, we use the coefficient of variation. To assess the skewness of productivity
distributions we use a robust index of skeweness, as well as the Characteristic Scores and Scales
approach. For productivity inequality, we use the coefficient of variation. In each field, we study two
samples: the entire population, and what we call “successful authors”, namely, the subset of
scientists whose productivity is above their field average. The main result is that, in spite of wide
differences in production and citation practices across fields, the shape of field productivity
distributions are very similar across fields. The parallelism of the results for the population as a
whole and for the subset of successful authors when productivity is measured as mean citation per
article per person, reveals the fractal nature of the skewness of scientific productivity in this case.
These results are essentially maintained when any article co-authored by two or more persons is
fractionally assigned to each of them.
2014-01-01T00:00:00ZSurprise me if you can: influence of newspaper endorsements in US Presidential electionsCasas, AgustinFawaz, YarineTrindade, Andrehttp://hdl.handle.net/10016/192052014-09-02T09:58:26Z2014-07-01T00:00:00ZSurprise me if you can: influence of newspaper endorsements in US Presidential elections
Casas, Agustin; Fawaz, Yarine; Trindade, Andre
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía
Using the daily trade of futures from the prediction markets site Intrade, we pin down the effect of printed newspapers endorsements (announcement of an explicit support for a political candidate) on the candidates' likelihood of winning. It is established that unexpected endorsements have a large impact on voters' behavior. However, we show that this effect is only true when the endorsement is a coherent one: if a newspaper that praises conservative (liberal) policies endorses a candidate with liberal (conservative) ideas, the endorsement does not impact the candidate's probability of winning, as it is regarded as incoherent. Our measure for coherence comes from Gentzkow and Shapiro (2005), but we also use Ansolabehere and Snyder (2004)'s \propensity to endorse Democrats" to show that a surprise endorsement has a large and potentially tipping effect in a tied contest
2014-07-01T00:00:00Z