Output per head in pre-independence Africa : quantitative conjectures

Prados de la Escosura, Leandro

Publication:
Output per head in pre-independence Africa : quantitative conjectures

dc.affiliation.instituto	UC3M. Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias Sociales	es
dc.contributor.author	Prados de la Escosura, Leandro
dc.contributor.editor	Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones
dc.date.accessioned	2012-11-13T11:15:48Z
dc.date.available	2012-11-13T11:15:48Z
dc.date.issued	2012-11
dc.description.abstract	GDP figures for Africa are unreliable. More dependable information can be found in government expenditure and international trade records. These records, though, provide little insight into non-market output. In this paper an attempt is made to draw explicit conjectures on real output per head in preindependence Africa on the basis of trade data so that conjectures can be established about Africa’s long-run growth. Two alternative approaches are considered. One estimates per capita GDP by assuming no increase in output per head outside the tradable sector, for which the purchasing power of per capita exports is accepted as a proxy. Another approach establishes an econometric association between real per capita GDP and the income terms of trade per head for 1950-1990 and, on the basis of the prediction equation’s parameters and the values of the RHS variables, infers real output per head for 1870-1938. Trends in real output per head are then drawn for Africa (and its main regions). By comparing these trends with those from other developing regions, some conjectures about Africa’s relative position over time are put forward. It emerges that economic growth started earlier than usually assumed and there is continuity in growth before and after colonial independence. Sub- Saharan Africa’s retardation is a gradual process, as growing and falling behind took place simultaneously. But it is in the period 1975-1995 when the worst setback in modern Africa’s history took place
dc.description.sponsorship	Financial support from Fundación Rafael del Pino’s research project on "Economic Freedom in History" is gratefully acknowledged
dc.format.mimetype	application/pdf
dc.identifier.repec	wp12-11
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10016/15876
dc.identifier.uxxi	DT/0000000975
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.relation.ispartofseries	Working papers in economic history
dc.relation.ispartofseries	12-11
dc.relation.projectID	info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/225342
dc.rights	Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
dc.rights.accessRights	open access
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.subject.eciencia	Economía
dc.subject.eciencia	Historia
dc.subject.jel	E01
dc.subject.jel	N17
dc.subject.jel	O47
dc.subject.jel	O55
dc.subject.other	GDP
dc.subject.other	Long-run growth
dc.subject.other	Pre-independence Africa
dc.subject.other	Sub-Saharan Africa
dc.title	Output per head in pre-independence Africa : quantitative conjectures
dc.type	working paper	*
dc.type.hasVersion	SMUR	*
dspace.entity.type	Publication