Publication:
Testing for voter rigging in small polling stations

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dc.affiliation.dptoUC3M. Departamento de Economíaes
dc.affiliation.dptoUC3M. Departamento de Ciencias Socialeses
dc.contributor.authorJiménez Recaredo, Raúl José
dc.contributor.authorHidalgo Trenado, Manuel
dc.contributor.authorKlimek, Peter
dc.contributor.funderEuropean Commissionen
dc.contributor.funderMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad (España)es
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-05T08:14:31Z
dc.date.available2023-10-05T08:14:31Z
dc.date.issued2017-06-02
dc.description.abstractNowadays, a large number of countries combine formal democratic institutions with authoritarian practices. Althoughin these countries the ruling elites may receive considerable voter support, they often use several manipulation toolsto control election outcomes. A common practice of these regimes is the coercion and mobilization of large numbersof voters. This electoral irregularity is known as voter rigging, distinguishing it from vote rigging, which involves ballotstuffing or stealing. We develop a statistical test to quantify the extent to which the results of a particular electiondisplay traces of voter rigging. Our key hypothesis is that small polling stations are more susceptible to voter riggingbecause it is easier to identify opposing individuals, there are fewer eyewitnesses, and interested parties might reasonablyexpect fewer visits from election observers. We devise a general statistical method for testing whether votingbehavior in small polling stations is significantly different from the behavior in their neighbor stations in a way that isconsistent with the widespread occurrence of voter rigging. On the basis of a comparative analysis, the methodenables third parties to conclude that an explanation other than simple variability is needed to explain geographicheterogeneities in vote preferences. We analyze 21 elections in 10 countries and find significant statistical anomaliescompatible with voter rigging in Russia from 2007 to 2011, in Venezuela from 2006 to 2013, and in Uganda in 2011.Particularly disturbing is the case of Venezuela, where the smallest polling stations were decisive to the outcome of the2013 presidential elections.en
dc.description.sponsorshipR.J. is supported by Spanish MINECO grant ECO2015-66593-P. M.H. is supported by Spanish MINECO grant CSO2012-35852. P.K. is supported by the European Commission under FP7 project MULTIPLEX no. 317532 and H2020 project Smart Resilience no. 700621.en
dc.format.extent7
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitationJiménez, R., Hidalgo, M., & Klimek, P. (2017). Testing for voter rigging in small polling stations. Science Advances, 3(6).en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1602363
dc.identifier.issn2375-2548
dc.identifier.publicationfirstpage1
dc.identifier.publicationissue6
dc.identifier.publicationlastpage7
dc.identifier.publicationtitleScience Advancesen
dc.identifier.publicationvolume3
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10016/38540
dc.identifier.uxxiAR/0000021313
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Scienceen
dc.relation.projectIDGobierno de España. ECO2015-66593-Pes
dc.relation.projectIDGobierno de España. CSO2012-35852es
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/700621es
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/317532
dc.rights© 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science.en
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial 3.0 España*
dc.rights.accessRightsopen accessen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/es/*
dc.subject.ecienciaDerechoes
dc.subject.ecienciaEstadísticaes
dc.subject.ecienciaMatemáticases
dc.subject.ecienciaPolíticaes
dc.subject.ecienciaSociologíaes
dc.titleTesting for voter rigging in small polling stationsen
dc.typeresearch article*
dc.type.hasVersionVoR*
dspace.entity.typePublication
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